Tobacco Tactics

A 25% tax preference for heated tobacco products is a textbook example of tobacco industry interference

According to the World Health Organization, raising excise taxes on tobacco and nicotine products is the most effective tool for reducing their consumption. The World Bank estimates that a 10% increase in the price of a pack of cigarettes reduces the consumption of tobacco products by 6-8% in low- and middle-income countries, which include Ukraine. That is why the tobacco industry consistently opposes any tax initiatives that could limit its profits.

Picture: World Health Organization

Ukraine was no exception. Law No. 4115-IX “On Amendments to the Tax Code of Ukraine Regarding the Revision of Excise Tax Rates on Tobacco Products” caused a significant stir from the moment it was drafted until it was signed by the President, which was delayed for three months. This case has become a textbook example of the tobacco industry’s systematic interference in the process of shaping public health policy, resulting in the creation of conditions for maintaining the affordability of tobacco products for young people and billions of hryvnia in lost revenue for the state budget.

Prerequisites for revising excise taxes on tobacco products

Having chosen an irreversible course towards European integration, Ukraine has committed itself to adapting its national legislation to EU law, in particular to implementing the requirements of Directive 2011/64/EU, which provides for the establishment of a minimum excise duty on cigarettes at a level of €90 per 1,000 cigarettes.

To this end, an eight-year plan was introduced for 2018-2025 to increase excise taxes on tobacco products by 20% annually, with an additional 9% increase from July 1, 2019. This was an effective strategy that contributed to a reduction in tobacco consumption among the population and also ensured budget revenues from this harmful product. In 2024, the Ukrainian state budget’s revenues from excise taxes on tobacco products and liquids used in e-cigarettes amounted to UAH 96.6 billion.

In 2021, Ukraine took another progressive step towards protecting young people from tobacco by harmonizing the excise tax on cigarillos and tobacco products for heating (HTPs, used with IQOS, plooom, and glo devices) to the level of the minimum excise duty on cigarettes. With this decision, Ukraine curbed the availability of HTPs, which at the time enjoyed significant regulatory preferences (unrestricted advertising, no health warnings, permission to smoke in public places), and ensured the stability of excise revenues to the Ukrainian state budget.

In just the first year of harmonized taxation, excise tax revenues on tobacco products increased sixfold compared to the previous year 2020, from UAH 1.7 billion to UAH 10.2 billion, and in 2024, this figure reached UAH 17.9 billion. In a letter to the President of Ukraine, the Director of the WHO noted this progressive decision as an example for the international community in protecting public health. 

However, due to inflation and the devaluation of the hryvnia, caused in particular by the war, it became clear as early as 2022 that Ukraine would not reach the EU excise duty level in 2025, and therefore the plan to increase excise duties needed to be revised. The tobacco industry also realized the inevitability of this decision and began to apply its arsenal of tactics at the initial stage of policy formation.

New excise tax plan developed with participation of the tobacco industry

At the end of 2023, the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine submitted for public discussion, and on March 18, 2024, registered in the Verkhovna Rada draft law No. 11090 “On Amendments to the Tax Code of Ukraine Regarding the Revision of Excise Tax Rates on Tobacco Products,” which proposed the following changes:

 

Positive decisions

Weak decisions

Conversion of excise duty calculations on tobacco and nicotine products into euros to avoid the impact of devaluation.

Plan to increase excise duties on cigarettes to €90 per 1,000 cigarettes by 2028 (the minimum level in the European Union, as required by Directive 2011/64/EU).

Setting the rate for e-cigarette liquids at €300 per liter in 2025.

Creation of a 25% excise tax preference for tobacco products for electric heating compared to cigarettes (€72/1,000 pieces by 2028).

Therefore, the government proposed to extend the implementation of Directive 2011/64/EU, which is a requirement for EU accession, by 14 years after the signing of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU.

 

The table below shows the weak dynamics of the annual increase in excise tax rates on cigarettes and tobacco products in 2026-2028 proposed by the Government.

 

Product/year

2025

2026

2027

2028

Cigarettes (minimum excise duty obligation in euros/1,000 pieces)

78 

82 (+5,13%) 

86 (+4,88%) 

90 (+4,65%)

HTPs

(specific excise duty rate in euros/1,000 units)

70,4

70,8 (+0,6%)

71,14 (+0,5%)

72 (+1,2%)

% preference for HTPs compared to cigarettes

10,8%

15,8%

20,1%

25%

As part of this initiative, the public, not affiliated with the tobacco industry, recommended:

  1. to eliminate tax preferences for HTPs by introducing a single plan to increase excise duties on cigarettes and HTPs to €90 per 1,000 units;
  2. to introduce a progressive schedule for increasing excise tax to €120 per 1,000 items by 2028 for all tobacco products, given that the average excise tax rate in EU countries is around €180, rather than the minimum €90.

 

The table shows calculations of the results of various scenarios for increasing excise taxes on tobacco products until 2028

Excise tax rate per 1,000 cigarettes / HTPs

Consumption of tobacco products

Prevention of premature deaths

Revenues to the state budget

90 / 78 euros

proposal by the Ministry of Finance

Only a 3.3% decrease, and after 2026 will start to grow again*

Prevention of 65,000 premature deaths by 2028*

Raising an additional €3.69 billion (UAH 157.8 billion) by 2028*

90 / 90 euros

Not calculated

Prevention of 87 485 premature deaths by 2028*

Raising an additional €3.84 billion (UAH 165.8 billion) by 2028**



120 / 120 euros

Tobacco consumption reduced by 8.4% by 2028*

Prevention of 165 000 premature deaths*

Raising an additional €5.22 billion (UAH 223.7 billion) by 2028*

*calculations by experts at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw)

**calculations by experts at NGO “Life”

The graphs show the predicted consequences of two scenarios for increasing excise duties on tobacco products, according to calculations by experts at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw):

  • Scenario 1 – plan by the Ministry of Finance – gradual increase in excise duty on cigarettes to €90, on tobacco products to €78/1,000 units by 2028;
  • Scenario 2 – An alternative plan to increase the excise tax on cigarettes and tobacco products evenly to €120 per 1,000 units by 2028.

Thus, despite numerous statements and indisputable arguments from the public, the Ukrainian government and parliament, under pressure from the tobacco industry, abandoned the effective practice of harmonized taxation of cigarettes and HTPs in favor of tobacco companies, two of which are international sponsors of the war, and introduced a weak plan to increase excise taxes on tobacco products, which will result in increased consumption of tobacco products, significant shortfalls in Ukraine’s war budget, and a widening gap with the level of taxation in the EU (divergence).

Arguments of the tobacco industry during the drafting and adoption of Law No. 4115-IX

During the process of drafting, revising, and adopting Law No. 4115-IX, the tobacco industry and related interest groups actively used a set of established arguments aimed at justifying the introduction of tax preferences for heated tobacco products (HTP) and a modest increase in excise taxes on tobacco products. These included:

  • misleading claims about the “lesser harm” of HTPs, despite the World Health Organization’s clear position that tobacco use in any form is harmful to health and poses serious health risks;
  • the argument about the complete legality of the HTP market and the need to encourage consumers to switch from traditional cigarettes to these products, when in fact HTP consumption among children aged 13-15 is higher than among adults, and among the adult population, consumption is concentrated among young people aged 18-29. This indicates that HTPs are primarily a means of attracting children and young people to nicotine use.
  • the claim of a direct link between excise tax increases and a rise in illicit trade, which is used by the tobacco industry despite the lack of evidence for such a causal relationship. Moreover, the tobacco industry itself is often the largest source of illicit trade: according to various studies, the tobacco industry’s share in the supply of illicit products varies from country to country, but can reach 60–70%. It should be emphasized that the problem of the illegal market is not solved by low taxes—it is solved by consistent measures to combat the illegal trade in tobacco products, which are most systematically reflected in the Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products.
  • references to the tax practices of certain EU countries, in particular lower excise rates on tobacco products compared to cigarettes, without due consideration of Ukraine’s circumstances, high consumption of tobacco products, and the critical need to fill the state budget for the war effort;
  • appeals to economic expediency, in particular the need to “support businesses” that pay taxes, provide jobs, and engage in production, without taking into account the long-term costs to the healthcare system and the economy as a whole.

 

These arguments were put forward both by individual members of parliament who publicly or informally defended the interests of the tobacco industry, and through related organizations and initiatives that created the appearance of broad public support for the policy of reducing excise taxes on tobacco products.

Tactics of the tobacco industry during the drafting and adoption of Law No. 4115-IX

Regulatory capture: industry interference in the development of the draft law

Law No. 4115-IX was drafted by the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine in cooperation with the tobacco industry, as openly stated by Deputy Minister of Finance of Ukraine Svitlana Vorobey [1].

Such actions by the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine in the interests of the tobacco industry violate Article 4 of the Law of Ukraine “On Measures to Prevent and Reduce the Use of Tobacco Products and Their Harmful Effects on Public Health” and international obligations undertaken in accordance with the ratified WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC). Article 5.3. The WHO FCTC stipulates: “In  developing  and  implementing  their  public  health  policies  to  combat  tobacco,  the  Parties  shall  act  in  such  a  way  as  to  protect  their  policies  from  the  influence  of  commercial  and  other  corporate  interests  of  the  tobacco  industry  in  accordance  with  national  legislation.”

When drafting the law, the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine ignored the position of the Ministry of Health and expert public opinion, not affiliated with the tobacco industry, regarding the inadmissibility of creating a 25% tax preference on excise duties for HTPs and the need to introduce a more intensive schedule for increasing excise duties on tobacco products, which would reduce the affordability of tobacco products in accordance with the recommendations of the World Bank.

Representatives of the Ministry of Finance, who defended a weak plan to increase excise duty on cigarettes and tax preferences for HTPs:

  • Svitlana Vorobey, Deputy Minister of Finance of Ukraine, stated that maintaining lower excise tax rates on heated tobacco products would help reduce illegal trade in tobacco products. At the same time, no confirmed data on the effectiveness of such a tax policy was provided. She emphasized the need to encourage tobacco consumers to switch to heated tobacco products [1]. Thus, in fact, the issue was not about combating illegal trade, but about encouraging the consumption of a specific category of tobacco products through tax preferences. This approach contradicts both Ukraine’s obligations under the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control and the basic principles of public health policy, which call for reducing tobacco consumption, not encouraging it.
  • Yurii Drahanchuk, Deputy Minister of Finance of Ukraine for European Integration, emphasized that the excise tax on HEETS should be lower than on cigarettes, since “there is potentially a lower risk of HEETS consumption than cigarettes.” He justified the weak plan to reach €90, given the risk of an increase in illegal trade: “tax increases should be implemented in such a way that, in principle, businesses can pay them” [3]; 
  • Viktor Ovcharenko, Director of the Tax Policy Department of the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, stated during a meeting of the Working Group of the Committee on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy on November 22, 2024, that the provisions of the draft law had been agreed upon with tobacco product manufacturers [2]; He spoke out against increasing the ad valorem rate, while Deputy Minister of Finance Yuriy Draganchuk supported the increase at a meeting on May 31, 2024.
  • Tetiana Potopalska, member of the Expert Council on the Preparation of General Tax Consultations at the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, defended the government’s version of the bill, noting that Directive 64 provides for a four-year implementation period, so the plan to reach €90 by 2028 fits within this timeframe. This is despite the fact that Ukraine began its journey towards achieving the EU minimum excise duty in 2015 [1].

 

Interference through members of parliament

A typical tactic of the tobacco industry is to influence the legislative process through political representatives and members of parliament. This manifests itself in facilitating the preparation of draft laws, introducing amendments that soften regulations, or blocking initiatives that restrict the sale and marketing of tobacco products. Lawmakers often act as intermediaries to promote the interests of the industry by participating in public discussions, committee meetings, and working groups, creating the illusion of political support for decisions that benefit the tobacco industry. This strategy allows them to influence legislation by masking their commercial interests under political or social arguments.

In particular, this tactic could be observed during the consideration of draft law No. 11090 in the Verkhovna Rada. A 25% excise preference for TVEN and a weak plan to increase taxes on cigarettes were strongly defended by individual MPs, some of whom had already been repeatedly spotted engaging in activities in the interests of tobacco companies. Among them were:

  • the head of the Tax Policy Committee, Danylo Hetmantsev, noted that the Ministry of Finance’s proposal is a compromise with the tobacco industry, so it is worth sticking with it in order to avoid starting the approval process from scratch [1]. During the Committee meeting on November 22, he noted that the International Monetary Fund supports tax preferences for HTPs [2, 4], despite the absence of such a fact;
  • Marian Zablotskyi, during a working group meeting of the Committee on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy on October 15, 2024, opposed the increase in excise taxes on tobacco products, emphasizing that “there is no point in raising excise taxes on tobacco without solving the problem of illegal tobacco trade” [1, 2, 3]. Until August 2019, Marian Zablotsky headed the NGO “Ukrainian Society of Economic Freedoms”, which received $427,000 from the tobacco company Philip Morris International between 2017 and 2019 [5, 6, 7].
  • Ihor Kryvosheiev registered an alternative draft law No. 11090-2, which also proposed a delayed plan to increase the excise tax rate to €90/1,000 units by 2029 and maintain tax preferences for HTPs [8];
  • Oleksii Movchan, during the Committee meeting on November 27, 2024, supported preferential taxation of HTPs compared to cigarettes and defended the interests of Japan Tobacco International, a tobacco company sponsoring the war, because “this business develops social infrastructure, has ‘white’ salaries, very high, with social protection for employees, technological management, extraordinary exports, and so on,” and in order to prevent the growth of illegal trade [9, 10];
  • Andrii Motovylovets supported the 25% preference on HTPs, appealing to arguments about the absence of an illegal HTP market, and that “taxes can also be used to combat smuggling, and this is a way to combat smuggling” [9];
  • Dmytro Natalukha noted that business associations had approached him, so he supports the government’s version of the draft law [1, 9];
  • Oleksii Ustenko noted in working groups of the Finance Committee and in publications that excise taxes on HTPs are significantly lower in European countries than on cigarettes, and that a sharp increase in excise taxes will lead to an increase in the illegal trade of tobacco products [1, 2, 3, 9, 11];
  • Alona Shkrum supported a 25% tax preference for HTPs compared to cigarettes, arguing that it was economically beneficial: “99.9% of the HTP market is white,” and “the industry provides employment and high salaries” [1, 2, 3, 9];
  • Halyna Yanchenko supported the government’s version of the draft law, in particular the preference for HTPs, because “it is necessary to create liberal conditions for business,” “the EU directive provides for differentiation given that HTPs are less harmful,” which is not true (the current Directive 2011/64/EU does not regulate HTPs) [9].

 

Lobbying through pressure groups

The tobacco industry actively uses pressure groups to promote its commercial interests. These are organized associations that systematically influence decision-making, policy, or public opinion in the interests of certain parties. They include business associations, industry associations, think tanks, and non-governmental organizations.

During the consideration of draft law No. 11090, this mechanism was used to its full extent. Representatives of influential groups participated in key meetings of the working groups of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy, opposed the sharp increase in excise taxes on cigarettes, and actively defended the 25% excise preference for HTPs, using arguments about the “lesser harm of HTPs,” the absence of an illegal market for these products, and the alleged rapid growth of smuggling of traditional cigarettes. During the meetings of the working group on draft law No. 11090, there were about 20 representatives of such organizations [1, 2].

This strategy aims to undermine the adoption of effective anti-smoking policies by promoting messages that serve the commercial interests of the tobacco industry. 

List of organizations and structures that supported the government’s version of the law with a preferential approach to taxation of HTPs

Business associations

  • European Business Association (Daria Sichkar) [1, 2, 12]
  • American Chamber of Commerce Ukraine (Oksana Shvets) [1, 2, 12]
  • U.S.-Ukraine Business Council (USUBC) (Oleksandr Prokhorovych, fiscal regulation manager at Philip Morris Ukraine.) [1]
  • Union of Ukrainian Entrepreneurs (Myroslav Laba) [1]
  • Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Dmytro Mykhailenko, Mykhailo Nepran) [1, 2]
  • Federation of Employers of Ukraine (Oleksandr Yavorskyi) [1]
  • Regional branch of the Ukrainian league of industrialists and entrepreneurs in Kharkiv (Eduard Naboka) [1]

 

Industry and specialized associations:

  • Association “Ukrtyutyun” [1, 12];
  • Ukrainian Distributors Association (Dmytro Lutsenko) [1].

 

Think tanks and expert platforms:

  • NGO “Growford Institute” (Tetiana Koshchuk, Mykola Pasichnyi) [1, 2, 13, 15, 18, 19, 20, 21];
  • NGO “Institute Of Tax Reform” (Maryna Stadnyk) [1];
  • NGO “Ukrainian Institute for the Future” (Anatolii Amelin) [14];
  • PU “Economic Debating Club” (Oleh Pendzyn) [1, 2]; 
  • Economic expert platform (Oleh Hetman) [1, 2].



Involvement of scientists

The tobacco industry attempts to engage scientists to promote solutions that serve its commercial interests. Tobacco companies engage individual researchers or university structures to prepare conclusions that serve the interests of the industry. Such materials are presented as independent expertise, although in fact they reflect a biased interpretation of data or fragmentary research, detached from the global scientific consensus and current WHO recommendations. The use of the status of scientists allows the industry to put additional pressure on government agencies, giving its proposals the appearance of a professional position.

Thus, Natalia Tymchuk, a leading researcher at the Department for Research on Lawmaking and Adaptation of Ukrainian Legislation to EU Law at the Institute of Lawmaking and Scientific and Legal Expertise of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, supported the provision of tax preferences for HTPs and reported that the relevant department had sent a scientific expert opinion on draft law No. 11090 and its compliance with Ukraine’s international legal obligations in the field of European integration and EU law [1]. 

Mykola Pasichnyi, an expert at the Growford Institute organization, systematically defends the interests of the tobacco industry and presents himself as a professor in the Department of Finance at the State University of Trade and Economics: he has prepared analytical notes and publications, participated in meetings of the Committee to discuss draft law No. 11090, and provided comments to the media that serve the commercial interests of the tobacco industry [1, 2, 13, 15].

 

Involvement of healthcare specialists

Even more cynical is the practice of involving representatives of the medical community. Tobacco companies use doctors or medical experts as public commentators who promote arguments about the “lesser harm” of HTPs or advocate for “gradual” approaches to regulation and taxation. Such voices are presented as the position of health representatives, although in fact they contradict tobacco control policies and the position of the WHO. 

The use of medical professionals misleads society. Such actions contradict the ethical principles of the medical profession and discredit the medical community.

Tax preferences for HTPs were supported by appealing to the lesser harm of tobacco products, which directly contradicts the position of the WHO and the National Standards of Medical Care in Refusing Tobacco Use: Olha Sribna, senior physician at the Strazhesko Institute of Cardiology [16]; Yevhen Symonets, Thoracic Surgeon, Pulmonologist, PhD, Chairman of NGO “All-Ukrainian Respiratory Club” [3]; Olena Kvasha, Doctor of Medical Sciences [2].

Health experts released a series of publications on the “lesser harm” of HTPs during the consideration of the draft law to increase excise taxes. For example:

 

The WHO clearly states that there is no reason to believe that heated tobacco products are less harmful than other tobacco products. Independent studies show that the levels of 22 harmful substances in iQOS are twice as high as in conventional cigarettes, and the levels of seven other substances are 10 times higher than in conventional cigarettes. Thus, the use of HTPs is associated with the same risks to the pulmonary system as smoking conventional cigarettes.

In December 2024, the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine found that Philip Morris had misled consumers about the reduced harm of IQOS and ordered Philip Morris Sales and Distribution LLC to stop spreading inaccurate information

 

Manipulation of the IMF’s position

The final argument that ended the discussion in the Committee on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy regarding preferences for HTPs was Danylo Hetmantsev’s reference to the allegedly clear position of the International Monetary Fund on the need to tax HTPs lower than cigarettes [2]. In reality, the IMF did not require Ukraine to create preferences for HTPs, but only recommended a tax range of €49 to €90, emphasizing the need to find a balance between financial goals and health objectives [17].

In the context of a grueling war, demographic crisis, and chronic financial shortages, a rational and fair solution for Ukrainian society would be to impose uniform taxation on HTPs and traditional cigarettes. Thus, Danylo Hetmantsev’s position can be viewed as manipulation in favor of the tobacco industry.

Delaying the signing

The law was adopted by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine on December 4, 2024, and, in accordance with the transitional provisions, was to enter into force on January 1, 2025.

On December 9, 2024, the law was sent to the President of Ukraine for signing.

In accordance with Article 94 of the Constitution of Ukraine, the President of Ukraine is obligated to sign and officially promulgate a law within fifteen days of receiving it, or return it to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine with his reasoned and formulated proposals for reconsideration.

However, the law was returned with the signature of the President of Ukraine only on March 24, 2025, and officially published on March 25, 2025.

Thus, the entry into force of the adopted law, the provisions of which provided for an increase in excise taxes, was unreasonably postponed for almost three months compared to the deadline set by parliament.

It was tobacco companies sponsoring the war that received tax preference

Two of the three tobacco companies whose heated tobacco products are available on the Ukrainian market are the largest taxpayers in Russia among all multinational companies and have been listed by the National Agency for Corruption Prevention (NACP) as international sponsors of war.

In the context of the grueling war against Ukraine, the state has granted these companies tax preferences, effectively supporting businesses that finance armed aggression against Ukrainian cities. This decision is highly controversial from the point of view of ethics, security, and the state’s economic policy.

The burden of tobacco for Ukraine

Every year in Ukraine, approximately 100,000 people die from diseases caused by tobacco use, another 325,000 lose their ability to work, and the economy loses approximately 3.2% of the GDP annually. Actions aimed at protecting the interests of the tobacco industry undermine not only the health of citizens, but also economic and demographic stability, as well as the overall capacity of the state.

The process of adopting Law No. 4115-IX is a prime example of systematic interference by the tobacco industry in the legislative process and clearly demonstrates the urgent need to strengthen the implementation of Article 5. 3 of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control in order to prevent the tobacco industry from influencing public policy.

This article was prepared with support from a grant from Vital Strategies on behalf of Bloomberg Philanthropies. The content of this article is the sole responsibility of the authors and can in no way be considered to reflect the views of the donors.